From one yr to the following, the exercise appears to extend additional. Beneath is the Lewis-Mertens-Inventory (New York Fed) WEI, the Woloszko (OECD) Weekly Tracker and the Baumeister-Leiva-Leon-Sims Weekly Financial Situations Index for the US, for the information as much as per week in the past (September tenth):
Determine 1: Lewis-Mertens-Inventory (NY Fed) Weekly Financial Index (blue), Woloszko (OECD) Weekly Tracker (tan), Baumeister-Leiva-Leon-Sims Weekly Financial Situations Index for US plus 2% pattern (inexperienced) hypothetical dates of the H1 recession. Supply: New York Fed by way of Fred, OECD, WECIand the creator’s calculations.
The WEI studying for the week ending 9/10 of two.6 is interpretable as annual quarterly development of two.6% if the studying of two.6 had been to persist for a complete quarter. The OECD Weekly Tracker studying of two.1 will be interpreted as an annual development price of two.1% for the yr ending 9/10. The Baumeister et al. a studying of 1.5% is interpreted as a development price 1.5% above the long-term pattern development price. Common US GDP development over the interval 2000-19 is about 2%, implying a development price of three.5% for the yr ending 9/10.
On condition that these are year-over-year development charges, it’s doable that we had been in a recession within the first half, as a result of an observer instructed a number of weeks in the past (the interval is highlighted by the lilac shading), however this (nonetheless) appears unlikely, opposite to options from observers comparable to Steven Kopits.