by Threat calculated on 09/28/2022 16:17:00
Two key factors:
1) There’s a clear seasonal sample for housing costs.
2) The spike in distressed gross sales in the course of the housing disaster has distorted the seasonal pattern.
For an in depth description of those issues, see the article by Jed Kolko from 2014 “Let’s enhance, do not ignore, the seasonal adjustment of housing information”
Be aware: I used to be one among many individuals who questioned the seasonal issue change (right here is a place in 2009) – and this led S&P Case-Shiller to additionally query the seasonal issue (since April 2010). I at all times use the seasonal issue (I feel it is higher than utilizing NSA information).
Click on on the graphic to enlarge the picture.
This chart reveals the month-to-month change within the NSA’s nationwide Case-Shiller index since 1987 (by way of July 2022). The seasonal sample was smaller within the 90s and early 2000s and elevated as soon as the bubble burst.
Seasonal fluctuations have lessened after the disaster, however the current worth spike has modified the month-to-month pattern.
The second chart reveals the seasonal elements for the nationwide Case-Shiller index since 1987. The elements began altering close to the highest of the bubble and actually elevated in the course of the disaster as regular gross sales adopted the common seasonal sample – and distressed gross sales have occurred all year long. .
Fluctuations in seasonal elements have diminished and seasonal elements have returned to extra regular ranges.